Against the backdrop of rapid expansion in artificial intelligence, defense industry, and new energy industries, rare earths and key minerals are no longer merely raw materials, but strategic assets affecting national security and technological competitiveness. Recent diplomatic and economic actions by the United States in Southeast Asia demonstrate Washington’s attempt to restructure the global rare earth supply chain, reduce its heavy reliance on China, and place resource-rich nations at the forefront of the US-China rivalry.
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Supply Chain Calculations Behind the Southeast Asia Trip
During his October trip to Southeast Asia, US President Trump reached immediate agreements with Malaysia and Thailand, with a core focus on cooperation in key minerals and rare earths. The White House stated that the US will deepen cooperation with Malaysia on the construction and security of the rare earth supply chain, while also strengthening cooperation with Thailand across all stages, from exploration and mining to processing. This strategy reflects the US’s accelerated push for a “de-Sinicization” supply chain restructuring strategy, attempting to establish new resource footholds in Asia.
A two-pronged approach: trade agreements and mineral cooperation.
During his participation in the ASEAN Summit, in addition to witnessing regional peace agreements, Trump also signed reciprocal trade agreements with Thailand, Malaysia, and Cambodia, pledging to address tariff and non-tariff barriers. According to the joint statement, the US will maintain existing tariff levels on most goods exported to these countries. However, what truly attracted attention was the concurrently signed agreement on diversifying key mineral and rare earth supply chains. This demonstrates that the US is closely linking trade policy with resource security, attempting to use economic incentives to secure long-term mineral cooperation.
Malaysia’s resource potential and policy considerations
Malaysia is considered a key player in this cooperation. The country’s rare earth reserves are estimated at over 16 million metric tons, but to prevent resource outflow, it has banned the export of raw ore and is actively developing downstream processing industries. According to the statement, Malaysia has agreed not to impose restrictions on exports of critical minerals or rare earth elements to the United States, but the agreement does not explicitly distinguish between raw ore and processed products, leaving room for policy and industry interpretation in future cooperation.
Resource-rich countries become the main battleground for the US-China competition.
Scholars generally believe that the flurry of signed cooperation agreements demonstrates that resource-rich countries have become the core arena for the US-China rare earth rivalry. However, many researchers point out that China still possesses a clear advantage in this competition. This is not only due to China’s long-term deep cultivation of Southeast Asia, Africa, and Latin America, but also because its investment model often comes with fewer political conditions, can quickly promote infrastructure development and create jobs, and is therefore regarded by some countries as a partner “truly capable of implementing construction.”
Structural advantages lay the foundation for China’s dominant position
China’s influence in the rare earth industry did not develop overnight, but rather stems from highly structural advantages. Currently, China controls approximately 70% of global rare earth mining and nearly 90% of processing capacity. This means that even if rare earth minerals are mined in other countries, they often end up being sent to China for refining and separation. Scholars point out that this long-term strategy has given China an unshakeable leading position in downstream processing and applications.
Differences between bottleneck technologies and cooperation models
Beyond production capacity, China also controls key bottlenecks ranging from rare earth separation to magnetic material manufacturing, and deeply integrates resource-rich countries into its own industrial system through joint ventures and long-term supply agreements. In contrast, the US cooperation model is usually accompanied by stricter compliance requirements and political conditions, and the speed of funding implementation is slower. This has led some governments to prefer the Chinese approach, which can quickly bring tangible construction results, when weighing economic development and political risks.
Image competition from a Global South perspective
Studies have shown that China’s strategy of packaging infrastructure development, trade, and mineral cooperation together has cultivated a relatively positive image in the Global South; in contrast, the United States is increasingly perceived as having a more hardline stance. Even though the United States still possesses significant international influence, China’s relative advantage among emerging resource-rich countries in the rare earth and critical mineral sectors is unlikely to be replaced in the short term.
Conclusion
稀土已成為牽動經濟安全、國防製造與科技競爭力的關鍵資源，美中之間的角力勢必持續升溫。美國透過與東南亞及其他資源國簽署合作協議，正嘗試重塑供應鏈版圖，但在短期內，中國仍握有加工與技術上的關鍵籌碼。未來，東南亞、非洲與拉丁美洲，將持續扮演這場全球稀土競爭中最關鍵、也最具變數的舞台。
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