“Rare earths” have transformed from industrial raw materials into strategic resources in international trade and geopolitics. Recently, the ongoing friction and negotiations between the United States and China regarding rare earth exports have once again drawn international attention. As China dominates the global rare earth supply chain, its policy movements have profound implications for the stability of the US technology and defense industries, as well as the global supply chain. Below is an overview of the background, progress, and potential impact of the rare earth export negotiations.
Table of Contents
Table of Contents
Two Leaders’ Phone Call: A Potential Turnaround for Rare Earth Exports
According to Reuters, US President Trump recently stated that Chinese President Xi Jinping has agreed to resume exports of rare earth minerals and magnet products to the United States. This announcement, made after a phone call between the two leaders, is seen as a potential turning point in the long-standing trade tensions between the US and China. Trump emphasized that Xi Jinping had “explicitly agreed,” which could mark the beginning of efforts by both sides to rebuild mutual trust and economic and trade cooperation.
Review of China’s Rare Earth Export Controls
Since April this year, China has implemented restrictive measures, suspending exports of seven categories of rare earth metals and magnet raw materials, including Samarium, Gadolinium, Terbium, Dysprosium, Scandium, and Yttrium.
These materials are widely used in industries such as automotive, computer chips, and military equipment. China’s move thus caused global supply chain shocks. The US immediately responded by accusing China of violating the Geneva Agreement and taking countermeasures, restricting the export of chip design tools and high-end technology to China.
Rare Earths as a Strategic Bargaining Chip: China’s Dominant Position
Although rare earth elements are not uncommon in the Earth’s crust, refining technology and supply dominance are key. Currently, over 80% of global rare earth processing comes from China, giving it a dominant position in the global rare earth supply. In the US-China trade dispute, rare earths have become a crucial bargaining chip for China. If US companies cannot secure stable supplies, it could impact American manufacturing and defense industries.
Easing Rare Earth Export Signals and a New Round of Negotiations
Despite the previous standoff between the US and China, recent signs of easing have emerged. Besides Trump’s statement, reports indicate that China has issued temporary export permits to rare earth suppliers for three major US automakers, which is seen as China showing goodwill in its control over strategic resources. Furthermore, representatives from both sides held a second round of trade talks in London on June 9th, focusing on rare earth and semiconductor export restrictions.
Negotiation Terms: Rare Earths for Chips
According to US sources, if the Beijing authorities are willing to relax rare earth export policies, the Trump administration might ease chip export controls to China. Both sides are seeking to establish a negotiation basis of “resources for technology,” hoping to return to more pragmatic trade talks. Despite months of friction, this strategic exchange reflects a deeper understanding on both sides of the risks that prolonged confrontation could entail.
Dual-Use Strategic Significance of Rare Earths for Military and Civilian Use
Traughber, a rare earth expert at Metropolitan State University of Denver, pointed out that among the seven categories of rare earths restricted by China, six are primarily used for civilian purposes, while Samarium is almost exclusively used for military applications. This highlights the strategic position of rare earths in the military industry. If control is concentrated in a single country, it could pose a potential threat to global security order and industrial stability.
Future Outlook: Supply Chain Restructuring and Trade Relations
The recent changes in rare earth export policy may open a new chapter for US-China economic relations. However, they also prompt other countries to reconsider the supply security of critical resources. Many countries, including the US, EU, and Japan, have initiated plans for developing alternative rare earth sources and domestic refining technologies. The final outcome of the US-China rare earth negotiations will not only affect the two countries but also influence the future direction of global technology and industrial supply chains.
(Source of the first picture: shutterstock)
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